In addition to Josephine, another area is observed off the coast of North Carolina. There are currently no threats to the Gulf of Mexico.
NEW ORLEANS – Eye on the tropics:
Tropical Storm Josephine continues to fight dry air and shear. It will move north of the Lesser Antilles as it takes a more northerly turn this weekend. It will head towards Bermuda where it is expected to be weaker.
One area off the coast of North Carolina is monitored and has a medium development chance. It is located northeast of the United States.
There are currently no threats to the Gulf of Mexico.
There is a pattern called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that represents a fluctuation of favorable and unfavorable conditions for tropical development around the world. This favorable / unfavorable pattern shifts every few weeks. For the next few weeks, the cheaper region will be over the Pacific, but towards the end of August and into September this pattern will shift across the Atlantic. This does not mean that in an “unfavorable” phase you will NOT see any development over a particular basin, but in a “favorable” phase you will usually see several storms at the same time and also the chance of seeing more strong storms. So we’ll be cheaper as we near the peak of the season. Stay tuned.
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HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST TO BE “EXTREMELY ACTIVE”
NOAA released its update on the hurricane season in August, calling for an “extremely active” season. The forecast envisages 19-25 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major. These numbers already include the nine mentioned storms and two hurricanes.
The reasons for the extremely active season:
• Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean
• Improved monsoon season (rainy season) in West Africa – causes tropical waves
• Possible La Nina education in the coming months
• Reduced wind shear over the Atlantic Basin – Allows storms to develop
Now is the time to be prepared. Usually the season gets more active over the next few weeks, with the peak on September 10th.
Colorado state experts have released their August 2020 hurricane season update. Your forecast now calls for 24 named storms (including the nine already), 12 hurricanes (including the two already), and five major hurricanes.
That’s an increase from four named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane.
Should there be 24 named storms, they would run out of names and would have to switch to the Greek alphabet as in 2005.